DEADinburgh

Last weekend, I took part in the most immersive example of science communication I can imagine. DEADinburgh was a piece of experimental (in every sense of the word) theatre in which the public play a central role deciding the fate of the city...

Modelling the spread of the Lazarus Pathogen

Before the show, a frightening background scenario was laid out; reports of violence throughout the city started to increase, by the time we realised what was going on it was too late to stop it. The "Lazarus Pathogen" has killed thousands, and turned thousands more into flesh-eating zomb- sorry, PALPs (People Affected by the Lazarus Pathogen). Now the city is quarantined and NATO warships lie off the coast with us in their sights. We have been given an ultimatum: if we do not assure them we can find a cure or institute an effective cull of the PALPs, they will destroy the city in order to halt the epidemic.

Since the scientific committee are deadlocked, the civilians will vote on the outcome. Throughout the evening each team of scientists explained their research and the impact this will have on their final decision. Our team from the Roslin Institute and the Wellcome Trust Centre for Cell Biology believe the Lazarus Pathogen to be a virus, we have developed a stain which allows us to tell the difference between healthy cells and those of the infected. As the civilians tested themselves, we made a terrifying - but exciting - discovery: individuals with no symptoms were testing positive, they were carrying the virus and probably spreading it to others. 

In our initial presentation we described how viruses work - they have keys to gates on the surface of the cells, once they get inside they can take over and copy themselves. Our suspicion is that the carriers are genetically resistant to the virus, maybe the gates on their cell surface have a different shape which stops the virus from getting inside (because their keys no longer fit). We used this theory to suggest a cure - gene therapy might allow us to give everyone these protective gates - to make everyone immune! The potential cures from other teams included harvesting protective antibodies from the PALPs themselves, rebuilding the damaged tissues with stem cells and 3D printing or behavioural therapy to get the PALPs off living flesh and onto vegetables (no, really).

The longer a cure takes, the greater the chance of a boundary breach

Despite all these exciting avenues for research, we had to admit they would take months or years to complete and in that time the Lazarus Pathogen might escape the city; the mathematical modelling by a Manchester Met University team suggested this would be the case (I've put a few simplified models into this post, courtesy of Matt Crossley). Maybe a well planned cull would be the wisest approach, when we started the assumption was that this would involve soldiers methodically moving through the city killing PALPs but as the show went on we realised there were ways the science could improve a cull. The PALPs are sensitive to light so maybe we could herd them into the centre of the city where they would be easier to manage.

An attempt to cull...

It was as we discussed the idea of keeping the PALPs occupied in the city centre using air-dropped meat that I had a brainwave. Rabies is an incredibly dangerous virus which is able to infect most mammals, it drives infected animals to bite others and then gets into the new animals in saliva; governments can stop infected animals getting into the country by air-dropping vaccines wrapped up in meat or fish-meal along the border. When wild animals eat these baits they become immune and the country can remain rabies-free; the baits feature a warning label for the public since dog walkers will occasionally find one. So the brainwave was to replace that vaccine with a potent toxin such as botulinum (that's botox) or tetanus, the PALPs should scoff down our toxic baits and any uninfected civilians will read the warning sign and keep away.

Unfortunately, from studies on PALP feeding habits performed by psychiatrist Dr Crow, we learnt that the PALPs will only feed on living flesh, avoiding dead meat unless trained otherwise. Whilst the idea of parachuting in hamsters armed with toxic capsules and "Warning Hazardous Material" tattoos still seems like a good idea to me, several of my colleagues disagreed and advocated the only other solution: sacrifice the city, and ourselves, to stop the disease escape.

A small bomb might not contain the pathogen...

But a big bomb means a lot of collateral damage

It was here my team raised a worrying possibility, namely that the Lazarus Pathogen did not originate within the city, instead it was bought in from abroad. International air travel allows pathogens to spread rapidly, infected individuals can get to the other side of the world and come into contact with hundreds of others before they even notice symptoms. This happened during the 2002/2003 SARS outbreak; a pretty local outbreak escalated into a pandemic and it was only decisive quarantine stopped over 8000 infections turning into hundreds of thousands.

At the end of the show there was a lot of discussion and we could have probably spent the night debating but in the end, the participants involved voted for cure on 3 nights, and sacrifice on the other 2; I guess we'll never know if a hamster-mediated cull would have succeeded...

An "artist's" impression

There are a few lovely reviews floating around (such as this one, this one and this one) where you can find out more, or you can wait for a Little Atoms podcast on the event. The scientific briefing and exercise we performed was created by the marvellous Sarah Keer-Keer and Nicola Stock. Huge thanks have to go to LAS theatre, Director Barra, Creative Producer Andy, along with all the cast, crew, staff at Summerhall and the public that allowed this awesome event to happen.